Shanghai (CNN)On Monday, Donald Trump indicated he would follow through on
campaign trail promises to scrap the Trans-Pacific Partnership, announcing
plans to pull out of the controversial trade deal in his first 100
days in office.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that
without the US, the deal "is meaningless."
While trade is likely to dominate Trump's
immediate relations with Asia, long-term strategic US interests are
most challenged by a rising China that is increasingly staking out its
interests in the South China Sea and Africa by setting up military bases and
reclaiming islands.
China has quickly moved to fill the vacuum
left by unease over a Trump presidency -- Beijing is pushing for free trade
agreements of its own and publicly rebuked Trump over climate change,
the reality of which China knows only too well, awash as it is with crippling
pollution.
How US, China military relations could change 02:39
Sino-Trump relations
During the campaign, Trump demonized China over alleged currency manipulation and
for stealing American jobs. To get tough on China he threatened to slap a 45%
tariff on goods made there.
However, contrary to the fears of many China's
watchers who are put off by Trump, there are several reasons a Trump presidency
might actually help US-China relations, lowering the risk of military tensions
and buttressing US business interests.
Because Trump is less concerned about
diplomatic niceties, and doesn't appear to have an underlying strict foreign
policy ideology, he can and should lobby for an end to protectionism in China.
While Beijing seems to regard President Obama
as a pushover, they won't be able to ignore a threatening and volatile Trump
who fights for a fairer playing field for US firms.
China has a new obession and it's Trump's hair 02:01
Free trade
Protectionism has always been a problem in
China.
US automakers like GM are forced to enter into
joint ventures with state-owned enterprises rather than owning outright their
production facilities.
Banks and insurance companies like Citigroup
are similarly hamstrung by regulations limiting ownership and business scope.
For the internet sector, good luck trying to
get into China -- websites from Facebook to Twitter to YouTube are all
blocked in the name of national security.
When China entered the World Trade
Organization 15 years ago, protectionism was less of an issue when the market
accounted for a relatively small proportion of the global economy and lumbering
Chinese companies were playing catch up.
But now, China is the world's second largest
economy and has global champions like Huawei -- the world's largest producer of
mobile phones -- or Wanda -- a real estate firm buying up Hollywood studios and
cinemas -- that cannot be allowed unfettered access to the US market when
American firms are left picking up scraps in China.
Will Trump mark a pronounced change in
US-China relations?
Intellectual property
Trump knows personally the problems of
copyright and intellectual property (IP) in China, issues hurting US interests
from companies as varied as New Balance to Microsoft.
The President-elect recently won a case
against a real estate services firm using the Trump name, he's going to have
another one to deal with soon -- a Chinese firm is making
Trump-branded toilets.
China needs better IP protection enforcement
so US firms feel comfortable selling their value-added products in the country
without fear of them being stolen.
Only a strong, vocal President, capable of
threatening, cajoling and waving carrots to Beijing can open up market access
to China. Beijing respects strength and runs circles around weakness, as it has
done to the Obama administration.
Is a US and China trade war imminent under Trump? 02:23
Military tensions
For his part, Trump can offer Beijing an
ideology based on reducing the US role as the world's policeman.
He has already said Japan and other nations need to pay more for their own
defense, and may reduce the number of troops the US has in South Korea
and Japan.
China is especially concerned by US troops in
South Korea with a direct land path to China. The Korean War technically never
ended, and Kim Jong-un's regime in North Korea appears
likely to implode, making China worried it may wake up one day with US troops
on its border. Imagine if China had tens of thousands of troops stationed in
Mexico.
By reducing troop numbers in South Korea,
Trump can assure Beijing the US is not trying to contain China, and deescalate
military tensions between the two powers without hurting US strategic interests
in Asia.
A Trump presidency is looked at with fear by
many in the foreign policy establishment. The reality however, is that he may
be able to cut through unsuccessful policies and chart a new course with China.
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